Dan Morehead, CEO of Pantera Capital, announced that the price of Bitcoin could exceed $ 100,000 next year.
Dan Morehead shared a post a few days ago and said that Bitcoin could exceed $ 500k next year. But Morehead renewed this forecast the other day and announced that now Bitcoin can exceed $ 100k.
Bitcoin price had started to rise rapidly after halving in the past years. The data in 2012 and 2016 show us that the price of Bitcoin starts to decrease 459 days before the halving, halving rises approximately, and peaking 446 days after halving. According to Morehead’s estimates, if history repeats itself and Bitcoin rises after this halving, the price will not increase even several times.
Comparison with 2016
There are only a few days left for the halving on May 12th. After this date, miners will receive 6.25 BTC from the blocks, not 12.5 BTC. In order to understand the effect of this on the Bitcoin network, we can give some examples from the halving in 2016.
There were 15.7 million BTC excavated when halving in 2016. With the block reward dropping from 25 BTC to 12.5 BTC, there was a decrease of 802 thousand 800 in Bitcoin supply. So the drop in supply; it corresponded to 5.2% of the total BTC amount.
In the halving this time, there are 18.3 million BTC in total. With the block reward reduced to 6.25 BTC, a 401,400 cut in BTC supply is expected. Thus the drop in supply; will correspond to 2.2% of the total amount of BTC. This means that the impact of halving on the network this year will be 40% less than in 2016.
Target 100 Thousand
Dan Morehead looks at historical data at this point and gets an interesting result. Just as halving in 2020 is less effective than in 2016; Halving in 2016 was also less effective than 2012. The effect of halving on the network in 2016; It was only a third of the halving in 2012. And the impact of halving in 2016 on Bitcoin price was only a third of that in 2012.
According to Dan Morehead, if history recurs, it means: If the halving in 2016 caused the Bitcoin price to increase by 2910% and this year’s halving will be as effective as 40% of 2016, the price of Bitcoin will increase by 1180% and reach up to $ 115 thousand. .
Can it come out?
In the light of this data, it seems like it is really possible for Bitcoin to go up to 115 thousand dollars. Dan Morehead makes a statement about his own predictions:
“I am aware that this price prediction sounds crazy right now. But when we set up the Pantera Bitcoin Fund, the price of Bitcoin was $ 65, and we said that at that time, Bitcoin could go up to $ 5,000. This sounded crazy. I will say that the price of Bitcoin will increase more than 50%. ”
Of course, it is possible for Dan Morehead to predict correctly, but it should not be too hopeful for investors. Because he said that it is “possible” for Bitcoin to increase to 42 thousand dollars at the end of 2019. Therefore, it does not necessarily mean that it is ‘possible’ for Bitcoin price to increase to 115 thousand dollars.