“The Bitcoin bull market is just getting started,” CNBC’s Brian Kelly said, referring to a different metric that has successfully shown the calm before a price storm in the past.
Uncertainty reigns in the markets and the sentiment is extremely frightening. This is why the story of the return to crypto winter looks strong. Kelly, on the other hand, believes it’s time for BTC to say goodbye to the upside breakout.
Bitcoin bull run still on the way
A 54% drop from the top-to-bottom all-time high of $65,000 was enough to scare the market. Short-term investors closed their positions at losses for fear of further declines.
Bitcoin’s steady performance has continued since its price dropped to $29,000. For the past two weeks, BTC has been hovering between $35,000 and $41,000 at the daily close.
Although the start of this week resulted in consecutive daily gains, a drop of close to $38,000 on Tuesday added to the story of the bear market returning.
CNBC’s Brian Kelly specifically referred to the Bitcoin address growth rate, stating that the bull market has just occurred. He noted that actual address growth has been flat, but expected address growth has slowed.
“For me when you look at Bitcoin it’s all about the network effect and indeed address growth. So one of the most important metrics I look at when managing cryptocurrencies is how quickly addresses are growing compared to what the market expects.”
Kelly points out that a similar difference in addresses was last seen during the coronavirus crash in March 2020. Afterwards, we saw a +1,750% movement in 13 months and BTC reached $65k.
“Overall, when Bitcoin is priced this low, it’s a sign of bottoming out. That’s why we’re looking at March 2020, where we had a big divergence. At that time, Bitcoin was three thousand five hundred dollars and then it jumped to sixty five thousand.”
In support of this view, Kelly noted that institutions are still active and the fundamentals remain the same. According to Kelly, the hedging narrative continues, and regulatory authorities continue to express a desire to work with crypto rather than ban it.
Will the bull run continue?
Reaching an all-time high followed by a rapid 54% drop is enough of a sign for many to mark the end of the Bitcoin bull run.
Automation Engineer Alexandros Roumpos points out that crypto bull periods usually last 460-518 days. This current phase is in just 370 days, but he states that it is necessary to be cautious about declaring definitively that the bull run is intact.
“The market seems to be split in half. Some believe we are in the bearish phase and this cycle is over due to the major correction. The other half believes that we did not see big gains in this bull run and that we are in a healthy correction.”
Some analysts, on the other hand, are talking about larger price swings and longer bull runs, driven by institutional money next time.
However, as Rumpos clearly states, no one can predict the future.