The first wave of the Altcoin season hit portfolios in the exchanges. There are double-digit returns from altcoins such as XRP, BSV, NEO, XTZ, YET and XLM, which are among the top 30 cryptocurrencies by market cap.
Among the altcoins whose prices are heavily influenced by HODLer distribution and composition, XRP has the largest market cap and offered the highest return (+ 77.32%) last week.
Altcoins that show a fluctuating situation are generally in ascending orbits. Also, rising altcoins such as OMG, STX, UNI, BAT, ALGO, ALPHA have begun to see a decrease in trading volume on exchanges. What’s more, lesser known altcoins like STX have also seen an increase in social volumes alongside cryptocurrencies like XRP, FTM, BTG, and XTZ.
According to the attached table, social volume is an important metric that triggers the current increase in prices. Another important metric in this altcoin season is the composition of HODLer, HODLing and HODLer. Identifying the changing HODLer composition has become key to determining an impending increase in price for altcoins such as ALPHA, STX, UNI, BAT, ALGO and OMG.
The average time that HODLers keep altcoins in their portfolios is the top scale, then the focus is on large HODLers and earnings of HODLers profitable at current price. These in-chain measurements have been instrumental in predicting price rallies this season.
The concentration of large HODLers in the morning hours today was 96% for the APLHA. However, only 53% of them profited from that price. This seems to indicate that for ALPHA there could be an increase in trade volume by over 100% in top markets, towards the $ 2.5 level, last seen in February 2021.
Even if we look at the situation of the STX, we can say that the social volume drives the rally. With an increase of over 968% in 24-hour trading volume, STX was rapidly changing hands in the morning. The price has risen over 20% in the last 24 hours and it seems likely it will continue its rally this week.
For OMG, the target was $ 10, but the price drop over the past 24 hours and the drop in trade volume (-33%) signal that more price adjustments are likely. In fact, the rally may have ended for OMG. On-chain sensitivity is trending down, according to IntoTheBlock. Moreover, at that price level, less than 30% HODLer profited, indicating that the rally is over.
While the rally is over for OMG, it is estimated that in the case of UNI the rally could be extended. According to UNI’s price chart and on-chain analysis; the price may rise towards the ATH before declining this week and ending the rally. This was evident from the increase in price (about 3%) and the increase in 24 hour trading volume. 98% (HODLer) of 77% of large HODLers closed the day profitably at the morning price level ($ 1.23).
There are other altcoins in the top 100 with low market capitalization. These are soon preparing to rally against the same benchmarks. These altcoins are WINK and ALPHA. Retail traders hoping to make double-digit gains this week will consider adding these tokens from the top 100 in their portfolios. The bullish trend could come this week for both midmarket and low market cap altcoins.