Bitcoin (BTC) has not moved significantly in either direction over the past week and remains undecided on determining the direction of the trend.



Failure to break in the short term and the next bounce could mean the current move is not corrective, indicating the bottom is coming. The movement in the next few days can be crucial in determining the future trend.

Weekly consolidation

During the week of June 28-July 5, BTC did not move significantly in either direction. On the contrary, we witnessed a price change between $32,699 and $36,660. It is still trading above the long-term horizontal support at $32,600 and formed a few long bearish wicks below it.

However, the technical indicators on the weekly time frame are still bearish. The MACD is negative, the RSI has crossed below 50 and the Stochastic oscillator is bearish.

The daily chart shows that BTC has been trading between $31,400 and $40,550 since May 19. The latter is also the 0.382 Fib retracement resistance level and may coincide with a descending resistance line depending on when it is reached.

BTC bounced off the support area on June 22, created a higher bottom on June 26 and has been moving upwards ever since.

However, technical indicators are not bullish yet. The MACD signal line is negative and the RSI is below 50. But both are increasing.

In addition, the Stochastic oscillator is very close to making a bullish cross (green circle).

number of waves

There are two potential wave counts.

The number of dips shows that BTC has been in a bearish trend that has continued since the all-time high of $64,895 on April 14.

If the count is correct, BTC will now be in the second (black) lower wave of the fifth wave (orange).

A potential target for the bottom of the move is near $19,800.

BTC completed the second lower wave (red) yesterday near the 0.786 Fib retracement resistance level at $33,800. It failed to reach the middle of the channel and instead broke down.

Therefore, BTC will need to break out of the channel in a sharp downward move soon for the count to remain valid.

The ascending number indicates that the upward movement is instead a leading diagonal. In this case, BTC could reach a high near $37,500 before falling.

However, the increase will be part of wave A (orange) of an A-B-C corrective structure, indicating that the short-term bottom is already there.

Whether BTC breaks out of current support or bounces will likely determine the future trend.


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