When will the coronavirus pandemic end? The exact answer to this question still challenges researchers, doctors and government officials globally, as it is a very recent situation and, therefore, without a considerable amount of information to determine its direction.
However, the Data-Driven Innovation Lab, a Singapore data analysis company, has created a website to “predict” the end date of dissemination in various parts of the world, as updated daily.
The initiative presents graphs with the period of the first confirmed cases of covid-19, its development, current phase, peak, probable date of reduction of the number of affected, in addition to the estimate of closure worldwide and by country. However, these last two data should not be seen precisely.
This is because the DDI team takes into account the average overall durability of the number of cases recorded so far. Thus, it does not include the adoption of measures recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO) to contain the spread of the disease in each region, such as increased social isolation, hand hygiene and the use of a mask.
Therefore, in practice the duration of the pandemic may be much longer than predicted in the indices in some places.
According to the DDI, the coronavirus pandemic would have a worldwide drop in cases from May 31 (reduction of 97%). However, the zeroed scale would only be possible on December 4, 2020.
Too optimistic forecast?
The scenario pointed out by the DDI, as said, would only be a possibility amid uncertainty, such as the adoption of social distance by the population, medicine for treatment, vaccine and cure of the disease. In addition, the official number of confirmed cases is not always consistent with reality (there are studies that suggest a much larger number).
An example of this is that a study carried out by five researchers from Harvard University, published on April 14 in the journal Science, reveals that the need to maintain the prevention practices indicated until at least 2022 (especially that of social distance).
“Longitudinal serological studies are urgently needed to determine the extent and duration of immunity to SARS-CoV-2 [covid-19]. Even in the case of apparent elimination, surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 must be maintained, as a resurgence of contagion may be possible until 2024 ”, warns the research.