Dan Held, Kraken’s expansion leader, stated that Bitcoin is currently experiencing a super cycle, which could cause the asset’s price to rise to $ 1 million. In a recent interview, Held explained exactly what this super loop represents. Since COVID-19, he says, people have “lost faith” in existing financial institutions and governments, so the current Bitcoin cycle is “different”.
The previous market cycles for Bitcoin are the speculative spikes we saw in 2011, 2013 and 2017. These were all macro bull running and the rest of the macro world. But then COVID prevented these movements, and then there was a coin minting.
According to Held, the epidemic was a catalyst to bring Bitcoin’s value proposition into a global perspective. Perhaps there is a reason why Bitcoin is running a “semi-normal cycle” that pushes the BTC price to “$ 200,000 – $ 400,000”. However, Held estimates that a decline of 20% to 30% could follow and claimed that this bear market may not be “busy”.
Because this time we have corporate buyers who buy and host. We have retail buyers. People are no longer just in a speculative run. People buy it because they see the value of Bitcoin. So this is where I think we can see a less busy bear market.
Moreover, Bitcoin may not have a “normal cycle” due to its mass adoption. There are now many options for purchasing the asset, unlike the “tough” times of 2017 and 2013.
For example, the French economist Marion Laboure predicted that future generations will “mass adopt” BTC. Deutsche Bank research found that cryptocurrencies are increasingly replacing cash and debit cards among millennials.
The economist concluded that in the long run, there will probably be “little room” to use crypto as a “common means of payment”, especially when central banks cannot give up their “monopolies”. Held believed in a similar idea and stated that it is “really too early” for the “era of change” when people use Bitcoin for daily payments.
He said three criteria should be met for the era of change: more people owning Bitcoin, a drop in price fluctuation, and people’s constant belief that crypto is “real money”.
Held predicted that it would take “ten or twelve years” for Bitcoin to become another use case as a medium of exchange.
In the long run, as Bitcoin is universally held by everyone to store value, eventually they will want to spend it. And if the fluctuation decreases and there is a massive network effect, let’s say more than 50 percent of the population has it, then network effects start to kick in where other people want to get it.