Ethereum News: Blockchain metrics on the Ethereum network indicate that there is currently a 50-50 chance of a bullish chance of ETH or a pullback to the critical sub-$2,000 levels. The data in question was provided by a report shared by the Santiment team.
Probability of ups and downs seems equal
Ethereum’s MVRV (market cap to realized value) shows that long-term holders are still in profits and have yet to feel the pain of ETH’s pullback from its all-time high of $4,372.
Ethereum’s supply on exchanges is at a one-year low, so the possibility of selling pressure is decreasing. The daily active addresses in the ETH network remain high as an indicator of a healthy network. But network growth in terms of new addresses failed to break previous 2017/18 all-time highs.
Ethereum mimics the 2017-2018 process
Ethereum’s price action continues to mimic 2017/18 and the “bubble burst” that followed. The cryptocurrency also competes with other networks such as Binance Coin, Polygon, and Fantom due to its low transaction fees.
Regarding the technical analysis, the Santiment team noted that an ascending wedge has persisted on the Ethereum chart, which predicts a price drop to $1,750. Their analysis can be seen in the description below and in the attached chart.
After bouncing around the $1750 levels in late June, ETH seems to have formed a rising wedge.
Considering that the overall trend is bearish, it is very likely to break from the ascending wedge and continue to break the $1750 levels.
In the concluding words of the detailed report, the Santiment team warned that Ethereum could experience a dead cat bounce until or after the implementation of EIP1559. Here’s how they explained this scenario:
Everything is speculative at the moment and no one will really know how the market will react to the implementation of EIP1559. It could be “Buy the rumor, sell the news”.
When opportunities to make money run out at the end of the day, participants can eventually leave, just as we saw in the 2017/18 cycle.
In a nutshell, ETH’s price action isn’t looking all that good and it may be at risk of another decline. However, an unexpected leap can happen, of course.