Brazil has the highest transmission rate of covid-19, according to the results of a new survey carried out by one of the most respected universities in the world, Imperial College in London. The country had a rate of R2.81: each carrier of the virus contaminates another three people, on average.
Although the estimate is alarming, there is an underreporting of the number of fatal victims of the disease in the country. Researchers point out that deaths from respiratory causes and deaths registered at a registry office have become more frequent, indicating that the information released by the Ministry of Health does not reflect reality.
Countries like Brazil and the United States have not yet managed to control the pandemic and should not relax quarantine measures. According to the study, both can register 5,000 deaths next week.
In view of the current situation, the state secretary of health, Edmar Santos, announced on Wednesday (29) that Rio de Janeiro may adopt a lockdown if the population continues to break the quarantine and the curve of cases of covid-19 increases.
According to state projections for the next 2 weeks, 21,000 infirmary beds and 7,000 intensive care units (ICUs) will be needed. However, the public network has a limited structure of 3,400 beds, which could generate a deficit of 25,000 places in hospitals.
Among the 48 countries analyzed, 10 occupy the group with the most serious estimate of deaths in the next 14 days; 22 have a “relatively low” risk of death, with an estimated 100 new deaths in 7 days. Nations that were badly affected by the pandemic, such as Italy and Spain, already have a more optimistic scenario due to the maintenance of social distance measures.
In addition to Brazil and the United States, eight countries are still expected to suffer from the increase in cases: Canada, India, Ireland, Mexico, Pakistan, Peru, Poland and Russia. According to Johns Hopkins University, as of April 29, more than 3.1 million people were infected with the virus and 227,000 died.